Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Significant improvement in financial risk profile
IRBIDL’s financial risk profile substantially improved post equity infusion of Rs 5,347 crore by GIC and Cintra in fiscal 2022. Of the Rs 5,347 crore, ~Rs 3,250 crore was utilised to prepay long term debt, thereby reducing its debt levels which had risen to support the funding of under-construction projects and working capital requirements. Net worth is expected to increase to Rs ~10,000 crore as on March 31, 2023 (CRISIL Ratings adjusted) from Rs 3,421 crore as on March 31, 2021, and debt is expected to almost halve by March 31, 2023 from Rs 6,997 crore as on March 31, 2021. Consequently, IRBIDL’s capital structure will improve significantly with TOL/TNW ratio expected at below 0.5 time in the medium term from 2.5 times as on March 31, 2021. The debt-to-EBITDA ratio is also expected to improve materially to ~2.5 times in the near to medium term. Financial flexibility is also supported by company’s strong track record of refinancing loans both in the domestic as well as overseas market.
- Established track record in the roads and highways sector
Established in 1998, IRBIDL is one of the largest players in the domestic roads and highways sector. Over two decades of experience has helped the company establish strong relationships with its stakeholders, which include NHAI, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) and state government departments.
The company was one of the early entrants in the build-operate-transfer (BOT) segment of the road sector, and is one of the largest BOT players in India. It has 12,000 lane kilometre (km) of projects in operational (includes projects transferred to InvITs) or under-development stages. The company also has O&M contracts for 11projects, which includes ten projects under Private InvIT and Meerut Budaun section of Ganga Expressway, and six projects under its public InvIT (IRB InvIT Fund – where it holds 15.97% stake) as project manager.
IRBIDL has ~20% share in India’s Golden Quadrilateral. A strong in-house EPC division managed by MRMPL undertakes project implementation for all the BOT/HAM road projects. Prudent project selection and strong execution capabilities help the company maintain strong operating margin of over 25%.
- Moderate working capital management
Despite inherently large working capital requirement in the roads and highways sector, IRBIDL’s working capital cycle is supported by moderate inventory and receivables. The company executes BOT/HAM projects for its SPVs, and hence, all the inventory and receivables are towards or from its SPVs, helping maintain its working capital cycle. While the gross current assets (GCA, net of cash) stood at 216 days as on March 31, 2022, it was largely due to high inventory and debtor days. GCA (net of cash) improved to 188 days as on September 30, 2022 and is further expected to improve.
- InvIT platforms to support capital unlocking
Demonstration of large equity raise from marquee global investors, and track record of raising debt in both domestic as well as overseas markets has materially improved the company’s financial flexibility. IRBIDL is a sponsor of two InvIT platforms – IRB InvIT Fund (publicly listed InvIT launched in May 2017) and IRB Infrastructure Trust (private InvIT launched in fiscal 2020) – which have supported capital unlocking in the past through asset monetisation and the company is expected to benefit from the same in future as well. The company’s strategy is to sell HAM projects on completion to IRB InvIT Fund or third party. In line with this strategy, IRBIDL transferred VK1 (operational HAM asset) to the public InvIT unlocking equity capital of Rs 342 crore. The company has demonstrated ability to raise equity in large under construction projects, thereby reducing the capital requirements in the near to medium term. The company has executed definitive agreements with GIC for 49% shareholding in Meerut Budaun section of Ganga Expressway (Uttar Pradesh) project and Palsit Dankuni (West Bengal) is getting executed through Private InvIT where GIC is 49% partner. The InvIT structure helps to upstream surplus cash flow to the sponsor from the beginning of operations, providing flexibility in managing the investment requirement.
Weaknesses:
- Concentrated order book with exposure to initial stage projects
The company had executable order book of around Rs 10,900 crore as of September 30, 2022 (including O&M orders to be executed over next three years only). This has resulted in improvement in order book-to-revenue (of fiscal 2022) ratio to 2.7 times as of September 30, 2022 from below 2.0 times earlier. While order book position has improved with two large BOT orders and three HAM projects awarded in fiscal 2021 and 2022, it is skewed towards one large state BOT-Toll project i.e., Meerut Budaun (Rs 4,981 crore as on September 30, 2022 and 46% of executable order book position), exposing the company to concentration and execution risks given the nascent stage of construction. Timely execution of large orders will remain a key sensitivity factor.
Further the company has not won any EPC orders in fiscal 2023 till date, it is expected to bid for and win orders in upcoming pipeline of awards from authorities. In absence of new order inflows, the order book to revenue ratio of the company may gradually decline and diversification in order book may not be achieved. Hence, it remains a monitorable from credit perspective.
- Large exposure to project SPVs with pending claims settlement
The company has made large investments in its project SPVs. Loans from surpluses of operational SPVs of Rs 2,526 crore as on March 31, 2022 mitigate part of the investment exposure. Although the company undertook HAM projects in 2018 and thereafter (where the equity requirement is lower than for BOT projects), its focus is on building a BOT/TOT portfolio, which will keep equity commitment high. However, a substantial part of the incremental equity requirements were funded through the inflows from preferential equity allotment. Further, IRB and GIC has agreed to explore future opportunity for BOT and TOT projects together in ratio of 51:49. This reduces IRBIDL’s equity contribution to 51% and the same was witnessed in Palsit Dankuni and Meerut Budaun section of Ganga Expressway project.
Receivables of over Rs 3,517 crore as on March 31, 2022, from projects transferred to the private InvIT will be recovered through settlement of claims with NHAI. Realisation of these claims will be a key monitorable.
Furthermore, one of the BOT project SPVs, IRB Ahmedabad Vadodara Super Express Tollway Pvt. Ltd has filed claim for compensation against revenue losses arising on account of competing road. The SPV approached the Hon’ble Bombay High Court in March 2019 and received an order in its favour conferring protection from contingency of default in premium payment for initial period of 3 months and then the Hon’ble Delhi High Court later awarded that this relief shall continue until arbitration proceedings under Section 17 of the Act are completed. The arbitral proceedings began in December 2020, the Hon’ble Tribunal further directed that interim relief granted by the Hon’ble Delhi High Court continues. Subsequently, the Hon’ble Tribunal declared an interim award in October 2021 in favour of the SPV. Later, NHAI challenged the interim award in the Hon’ble Delhi High Court which was subsequently dismissed by the Court in July 2022. The arbitration proceedings are in progress, in the meanwhile, the SPV filed its updated claim of Rs 2,123 crore (as of September 30, 2022) in December 2022. The claim for revenue loss is recurring as it will continue till end of concession period along with the accrued interest, resulting in an increase in the claim amount.
In case of the favourable outcome of the arbitration, the SPV shall be compensated against the competing road by NHAI on recurring basis as per the terms of the Concession Agreement until the breach is cured. Therefore, the toll revenue plus the compensation receivable from NHAI would be sufficient to meet the premium obligations. In case of SPV being unsuccessful in the arbitration, pursuant to the direction of the Hon’ble Bombay High Court, the unpaid premium has be paid to NHAI on the principle of "premium deferment scheme" of the central government earlier agreed in Supplementary Agreement dated June 6, 2014. Under the said scheme if cash flows are insufficient to make premium payments, the same will be accrued and paid post completion of debt servicing (as the project has a long tail period post receipt of extension in concession period). Hence, no support is expected from IRBIDL towards this project. Moreover, corporate guarantee extended by IRBIDL towards this SPV has fallen off post the SPV reaching threshold debt service coverage ratio of 1.15 times. Any change in this understanding is a rating sensitivity factor.
- Susceptibility to intense competition and cyclicality in the roads and highways sector
IRBIDL’s outstanding orders are almost entirely from the roads and highways segment. This exposes it to intense competition and sectoral concentration risk. Although the company diversified into the HAM segment in 2018 and thereafter from a pure-play BOT and TOT player, its ability to execute orders, grow revenue, and sustain profitability is susceptible to competition in the sector, changes in government regulations and economic conditions. Limited diversity in revenue will keep IRBIDL susceptible to intense competition and cyclicality inherent in the construction industry.
Competition may intensify further (particularly HAM space) with relaxation in bidding norms by NHAI. However, given IRBIDL’s continued focus in the BOT-toll space where competition is limited, operating margin is expected to remain stable over the medium term.